Vídeo: “As pessoas estão atentas” às tentativas de Trump de anular o resultado eleitoral

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in just a few short days we’ll know the results of the US election and the likely implications for the EU and Ukraine on the Europe conversation I catch up with Ian lesser of the German Marshall fund who says no matter who wins America will remain deeply polarized so uh Ian welcome to the Europe conversation here on Europe news um look at why don’t we start with a little prediction because this time last week we’ll know how America voted more or less but we may not have a clear idea of who’s going to be the next president you may still not know because it’s so close that it could easily be contested in various states there may have to be recounts uh we’ll have to see what the polls all seem to say the same thing which is that the country is very evenly split and it comes down to a few States and a few people in a few States and whether the come out to vote or not I mean are there indications that we could see a repeat of what happened the last time where in Georgia for example Donald Trump demanded he get 11,800 votes because that’s the amount he needed to win the state that you might have some sort of interference and then uh disinformation about uh stolen ballots and so on well I mean there’s always a risk of this and of course the concern about this has been growing over the last years I on the other hand everyone is watching uh it’s not as if there is a lack of transparency and the systems in fact are very strong but they’re also very legalistic and there could be many legal challenges even even legitimate legal challenges if it’s very close um so you know it’s quite conceivable that even a few days afterwards you really won’t know who won okay so uh look let’s look at from an EU us perspective what are the issues that EU need to be concerned about regardless of who’s President well I think above all Europe want predictability from Washington predictability uh on trade predictability on security predictability on regulation all the sorts of things that European stakeholders and governments care about uh and of course uh that’s not always in large Supply uh with any Administration but of course there was an experience with former president Trump uh and that was a very unpredictable experience for Europe um he’s said a lot about tariffs he said a lot about uh putting increasing pressure on uh nato in particular uh maybe not supporting Ukraine in the way that we’ve seen in the last years all these things would pose huge dilemas for Europe if he does what he says if he wins so what kind of tell me what you think could happen for example what he did say is I mean he’s a big fan of tariffs now the Biden Administration didn’t um remove all those tariffs and then had the inflation reduction act as well so that was a bit of a concern but he’s talking about imposing 200% tariffs when it comes to China on imported goods I mean it’s something much more dramatic than we before right it’s a it’s a different world I it’s true that there is this Rising sort of Tide of economic nationalism not just in the United States actually globally uh where governments are reaching for tariffs as a solution or own domestic Investments industrial policy all this thing that that leads us into greater competition across the Atlantic uh but obviously what Donald Trump has been talking about takes us into different territory if he does what he says um this would be a tremendous structural change in economies also how money is raised in the United States is even talking possibly about using tariffs instead of income taxes to raise federal revenue I mean this hasn’t happened since the 19th century yeah how how would would it impact Europe let’s say the tariffs let’s have a look and see from a trade point of view what would happen to the European Union well the United States and Europe are the largest economic Partners in the world in trade and investment um and Europe is highly dependent on trade the United States somewhat less so but it’s it’s hugely meaningful to both countries we’re the biggest economic partners for each other respectively and so anything that that that disturbs that uh that uh makes it harder to do these transactions across the Atlantic is is going to be is going to be a negative thing in terms of economic growth but also in terms of costs to Consumers um all sorts of things that people depend on on both sides of the Atlantic and when you look at let say the dragy report and talking about how Europe is already sort of flailing and you know could potentially die using the language of president macron that obviously makes exacerbates the situation it does exacerbate the situation uh it’s one thing to have the challenges that uh Mario dragi talks about in his report of the IMF has said similar things recently uh when things are going well when economies around the world are growing uh but that’s not necessarily going to be the case under these conditions uh many economists say that if tariffs of this kind become the norm not just in the United States but elsewhere that it would really suppress Global growth in a way that would make all of those challenges much much more dramatic well look let’s look at security because um we see Ukraine is still struggling the victory plan of Vladimir zinski um maybe hasn’t had the traction that he would have liked um member states NATO are still considering what he would like and there I think a lot of them are waiting to see what happens you know after this election but Trump is saying that he could end war in 24 hours I mean what would that look like what kind of concessions would be imposed on Ukraine in a situation like that well I I think he has in mind that uh that he would be able to send well two messages one to president zalinski that either you go to the bargaining table or we stop the assistance uh and similarly he could go to uh President Putin and say either you come to the bargaining table or we redouble our assistance to Ukraine um whether any of this is realistic uh it’s very hard to say Obviously for Russia and for Ukraine this is existential in different ways for Russia it’s all about regime survival for Ukraine it’s all about its sovereignty uh will they be inclined to compromise simply because Washington presses that perhaps not but I mean what would you even be more inclined to think that Trump might do given um his Laing of President Trump over the past few years well I think he doesn’t know where it ends and you know it is true true that I think uh right across the political Spectrum in the United States and in Europe people are beginning to ask tougher questions obviously about what is the endgame here what is this peace plan uh can yes sure for Ukraine to recover its territory and sovereignty fully uh for an open door to Nato for membership in NATO sure but when how is that conceivable in the near term probably not um so so how does this how does this stop if not end and for NATO that’s another issue because you know Trump has questioned his commitment to Article 5 for example particularly of NATO allies who aren’t paying at least the 2% of GDP I mean NATO is nothing without the US and Article 5 well it’s true uh NATO can do many things but in the current conditions with a war in Europe and this very severe problem of deterring uh Russia uh and other risks that exist out there the US capability is still absolutely potential I mean yes maybe years from now Europe with a lot of investment would be able to do much more uh and there are also things that could happen in Asia that would draw the United States away regardless of any kind of political decision making about NATO uh in Washington so there are there are plenty of things that Europe would want to reinsure itself against by building up its own defenses but it’s the work of many years to do that and there is a very real risk since former president Trump has a you know a known attitude about NATO um that this debate is going to get much much tougher the problem not just the debate but the Strategic problem will get much much tougher that said I don’t think he’s going to pull the United States out of NATO um there’s still a lot of support for nato in the public on Capitol Hill uh and at the end of the day it’s an American interest but he could make life inside NATO very difficult indeed yeah that’s the point isn’t it it’s not that he would take America out but that within NATO he would block a lot and we had we’ve seen the language of trump proofing over the past few months at NATO about institutionalizing Ukraine and support you for Ukraine within NATO do you think that that is enough has been done there well an awful lot would have to be done of course in NATO everything is done by consensus I but absolutely everything from the smallest thing to the most existential things all done by consensus so what the US uh thinks and does really matters just as others and uh you know if the US is not supportive of seeing NATO as a vehicle for doing this it’s going to make make a huge a huge huge difference what difference do you think um a Kamala Harris presidency and a trump presidency will have on member states within the European Union because you’ve seen Hungary for example hold back and block um movement on the European peace facility um block initially but having failed to um block the access of the 50 billion euros from the G7 um you know what impact do that would that have on member states and unanimity and so on there you know I think there would be a fun fundamental change in the American attitude towards the European Union if former president Trump comes to the White House again uh less so with President Harris if she were to be president um vice president Harris um I think it’s important to consider what the Biden Administration has done and how the Biden Administration has seen Europe the Biden Administration has been really almost uniquely interested in seeing the European Union itself as an institution as an interlocutor on lots of things where we don’t necessarily have to okay on trade you have to do it but you don’t have to do it on a lot of other things and they have been inclined to see the EU to take it seriously to see them as a as a key player um that wasn’t always true in the past with Democratic or republican administrations different kinds um I it certainly wouldn’t be true in another Trump Administration for Harris there would be a degree of continuity in what way well clearly there are some uh Victor Orban makes no secret about this who would prefer to see a trump uhid presidency um many would not but in any case Europe has to deal with what it gets I mean the personality thing is very ISS interesting because a lot of the people who worked with Donald Trump in the White House have come out and said that he’s not fit for office including former Chiefs of Staff John Kelly who said that he would Implement Fascism and read out uh you know the dictionary um description of what fascism is and said this is Donald Trump I mean is what’s your how do you respond to something like that well it’s I understand why people are troubled by this I mean it is it is troubling to talk in those terms um I think um we have we have another problem of course which is that the governance in the United States has proved extremely dysfunctional in recent years it’s not just that the country is highly polarized um you know in the senate in Congress it’s very difficult to get people confirmed for example and that’s one of the reasons why Trump is talking in terms of you know having more in ense political appointees and and and shrinking the Civil Service and and having more accountable political appointees we already have that system actually but it’s not as sweeping as he’s proposing and it doesn’t have the kind of tough measures that he’s talking about obviously it would be very different it’s really Uncharted Territory for the United States okay Dr Ian ler distinguished fellow with the German martial F thank you very much for joining us on the Europe conversation good to be with you thank you