Vídeo: Jacob Kirkegaard: “É mais importante para a Ucrânia juntar-se à UE do que à NATO”

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[Music] a new commission a new European Parliament and a new US Administration what does this all mean for the future of Europe I chat to yob kir Garden on the Europe conversation so yob we’re coming into a new commission uh a new European Parliament um and I want to start off with the Middle East because obviously this week we had the anniversary of the 7th of October Hamas attack with that we’ve seen horrendous conditions in Gaza as a result of the Israeli response and also a widened Regional spread of War what implications does this have for Europe well I think the the short answer is that in in economic terms unfortunately the implications for Europe really resides on the risk of escalation AKA that Israel may or may not choose to strike the Iranian oil sector Iran May then return alate and oil may rise significantly in price that that’s really the economic risk uh politically uh for the EU I think we’re we have seen over the last number many months in fact that obviously this is a conflict that retains this ability to to mobilize significant segments of European populations it varies from country to country but what what you lack basically for the EU is of course Unity um one of the sort of charges leveled against the EU in relation to this is double standards that there isn’t the same support or empathy for the Palestinians as there is for ukrainians um and that has impacted the eu’s I suppose reputation within the Go Global South something that Brussels has been trying to Garner support for when it comes to the war in Ukraine how do you see this playing out no I think it is true I mean I think it’s important for Europeans to recognize that while we clearly view the conflict in Ukraine as the first existential armed conflict really threatening the military security of Europe arguably in a number since World War I uh in some ways or certainly since the end of the Cold War uh and therefore we view that rightfully in my opinion as an existential crisis but in the eyes of the global South uh who do not you know fear imminent Invasion by Russia uh well it’s just quote unquote another regional conflict so that we in Europe but also in the broad G7 are sort of trying to actively uh solicit their support for Ukraine for what in their eyes is a regional conflict while we again in their eyes are ignoring not just the Israel Palestine conflict but many other Regional conflicts armed conflicts uh across uh the global South yes in their eyes that’s clearly uh hypocrisy and I think again if you look from where they come they have a point so we see it as an existential crisis yet at the same time we hear from the ukrainians from President zelinski we don’t have enough weapons um you know our soldiers are on the front line and they’re suffering for the want of weapons well I think there’s no doubt that Ukraine is continues to fight a very determined and very L much larger uh neighbor in Russia so they are inherently the underdog if you can put it that way they have received very significant amounts of Financial and Military Support from the West but the war is entering now is well into its third year and there are concerns not just with the upcoming US presidential election but also domestic politics in many European countries is this sustainable I think the good news in my opinion is that I believe in Europe with the clear exception of Hungary possibly Slovakia but let’s put it this way all the countries in Europe with real money and Military capabilities are strongly behind Ukraine I suspect that situation will uh persist precisely because uh we do have to view this conflict as an existential one because I think it is naive to assume that if Russia were to Prevail in Ukraine that they would quote unquote just stop at those four provinces that they have already annexed but at the same time we’ve heard from president zinsky he has his um vision for ending the war his victory plan which he presented at the United Nations General Assembly at Stein and Germany to NATO allies and the response has been tepid there’s no um complete Embrace of this response from the United States which hasn’t said it it can give support for for example the use of long range weapons into Russian territory we’ve heard Chancellor Schulz saying Germany would never agree to that and what we do know of the plan is that it’s very offensive so it doesn’t appear that the Allies are you know four square behind zilinsky on this I think you need to have uh Russia put under military pressure and I think that is really what this plan strives to do uh that will require clearly in the eyes of uh uh you know president Selinsky and the Ukrainian government the ability to strike uh strategic targets with Western weapons deep in Russian territory clearly as you mentioned the US government the German government do not see it that way but there are other European governments including those who have delivered f-16s and other missiles a longrange missile to them that actually are in favor of it so we will see uh where we end up and I think it should also be mentioned and I think this is again one of these areas which at least gives me uh a relatively High degree of of optimism actually about Ukraine’s ability to ultimately Prevail which is the growth of Ukraine’s domestic military industrial complex and capabilities where we have seen in recent weeks and months the rising use of accurate long range drone strikes by Ukraine on you know Russian ammunition Depots energy uh storage facilities Etc at the 75th anniversary of NATO in Washington DC Ukraine was told there was an indestructible Bridge towards membership not quite membership but no timeline do you think Ukraine will become a member of NATO or do you foresee that it may have to give up NATO membership at least in the short to medium term in order to negotiate uh Russia leaving its territory I think they will become a member of NATO uh but I think it is arguably more important for Ukraine that they become a member of the EU uh because I think that ultimately Ukraine will prevail in this war meaning that they are able to uh deter Russian aggression even without being a member of uh NATO provided that they have access to ongoing Western Financial and Military Support which in principle I think they could have without being a member uh of NATO what matters for Ukraine uh however in the long run is money financing to rebuild the economy and full integration with uh the EU so that they can completely turn their back which is clearly what they want uh to any links in the energy sector and otherwise with Russia that requ requires in my opinion uh full EU membership uh uh in the relatively near to medium term meaning like 2030 yeah early 2030s and and this ironically also in my opinion would prove a much bigger uh long-term threat to Vladimir Putin and indeed the entire Russian regime because what this would provide Ukraine was an opportunity to become I would argue a fast growing uh market economy based democracy fully anchored in the EU clearly showing uh the Russian population that you know what there is an alternative uh to the autocracy perpetrated on them by Vladimir Putin and his likely successors do you not think countries like Hungary will go out of their way to block Ukraine’s accession every step of the way which we’ve seen so far Victor Orban will try to Curry favor with his true political Masters which are in my opinion in in Moscow and increasingly also in Beijing he may try that but ultimately we are now seeing the growth of uh you know domestic opposition parties in uh Hungary if we manage by the rest of the EU to continue the financial squeeze uh on Hungary through uh the budget I think uh you know in the at the end of the day and again we’re talking maybe 10 years uh for the final decision for Ukrainian membership to be taken and it is not clear that the Hungarian regime if I may use that word is act does have that level of longevity given the domestic developments and ongoing I hope economic pressure that he will face within the EU and you say political pay masters do you mean because of the investment Beijing and Moscow have in Hungary no I don’t I mean I think it is clear that Hungary having clearly written off I would argue uh many of the fut currently Frozen and future uh transfers from the EU what have they done instead clearly with regard they continue to elicit Uh Russian energy Imports including uh building a new nuclear power plant uh with the case of china he has signed uh among other things clearly in my opinion to continue to offer a if you like uniquely politically uh preferred destination for Chinese invest m in the EU a security treaty with China that allows Chinese police officers to patrol with Hungarian police officers on the streets of uh Hungary that is something that no other EU member can offer and May in fact uh choose to maybe the deciding political Factor when the Chinese quote unquote private companies or state owned companies choose where to locate their investments just final question for let go because we about three weeks to go to the US election um what are your predictions and you know regardless of who wins do you think that Europe is on its way to drisk from its relationship with the United States or is that just impossible at least for the short term yeah I think it is in the short term in a military sense it is clearly impossible I mean NATO without a fully committed United States is just not NATO at the same time I think the fact irrespective of who wins the fact that a candidate like Donald Trump might be reelected I mean he could actually win and be reelected in my opinion clearly cast out about the long-term viability of uh or the value if you like of NATO’s Article 5 so irrespective of who wins Europe doesn’t have any choice other than to do what some of the things that was in the draggy report as well to achieve a much higher degree of self-sufficiency and Military National Security uh issues the EU can only achieve that if we manage to fully integrate Ukraine uh into the European economies because we’re already seeing the growth of domestic Ukrainian weapons production they have an existing uh you know military industrial complex they will become I think the Arsenal of the EU okay yakob kirkgard senior fellow at bugal thank you very much for joining us on the Europe conversation my pleasure